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REALTORS® Expect Home Prices to Increase by Four Percent in the Next 12 Months

REALTORS® Expect Home Prices to Increase by Four Percent in the Next 12 Months

Posted in Economic Updates, Home Price, Interactive, Local Market Data, by Scholastica (Gay) Cororaton, Research Economist on May 7, 2018

In a monthly survey of REALTORS®, respondents are asked “In the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you make the most sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?

Among the respondents, the median expected price change is four percent. The chart below shows median expected price change by state based on survey responses collected during January–March 2018[1], according to the  March 2018 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey

 

 

 

 

 

 

Respondents from the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia expect the highest price growth in the next 12 months, with the expected median price growth at more than five to nearly eight percent. Respondents from California, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, and New Hampshire also expect strong price growth, with the median expected price growth in the range of more than four to five percent.

House prices have increased steeply since 2012 compared to the growth in income. Nationally, U.S. home prices rose 44 percent during the period 2012 Q1 –2017 Q4, based on the FHFA Home Price Index expanded, not seasonally adjusted data set. Meanwhile, personal per capita income only increased by 17 percent during this period. Strong demand because of employment growth, historically low interest rates (though slowly creeping up), and inadequate home building (though steadily rising) have all contributed to the steep price increase since 2012.

According to Realtor.com data, listing prices were higher in March 2018 compared to one year ago in many metro areas, even in areas where prices are at or near the $1 million level, such as San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara (+31%) and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward (+6%). However, the median listing price decreased in Sta. Maria-Sta. Barbara (-28%) and Napa (-15%).

In high tax areas that were the most affected by the $10,000 total limit on deductions for property, state, and local income taxes, prices are still rising, such as in New York, Newark-Jersey City (+13%), Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk (+10%), New Haven-Milford (+5%), and Hartford (+4%).

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